Blog posts

Simulating CDR in the EU ETS: The Risks of Premature Integration

Simulating CDR in the EU ETS: The Risks of Premature Integration

Sandbag has developed an ‘ETS + CDR simulator’ to help visualise and explore the impact that CDR integration could have on the ETS, assess the demand it could create for CDR, and highlight the potential consequences of this demand. This report uses the simulator to explore how different integration pathways could affect emissions reductions, carbon prices, and potentially lead to negative externalities.

Getting Electrification Right: The broader challenge of induced emissions

Getting Electrification Right: The broader challenge of induced emissions

This report examines how the climate impact of electricity use is shaped not just by its source, but also by its timing and location. It evaluates the EU’s RED III framework and associated hydrogen targets, using the RFNBO standard as a case study. The analysis shows that ill-timed use of renewable electricity (particularly for hydrogen production) can inadvertently drive fossil generation. It argues for more strategic use of electricity to avoid these unintended consequences and support genuine decarbonisation.

CBAM extension: Closing the emissions gap

CBAM extension: Closing the emissions gap

Free allocation has long been used to address carbon leakage under the EU ETS, but it has key limitations. It only covers emissions up to benchmark levels, fails to reward cleaner EU producers, and forfeits auction revenues that could support decarbonisation. It also creates perverse incentives by making high-emission goods artificially cheap.

Auction for industrial heat electrification: A positive step, but mind the induced emissions!

Auction for industrial heat electrification: A positive step, but mind the induced emissions!

Industrial heat electrification is a key strategy for decarbonising energy-intensive industries by replacing fossil-based heat. We welcome the European Commission’s initiative to launch an auction to electrify industrial heat, while emphasising the need for careful design to prevent unintended increases in emissions due to electricity grid dynamics. 

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