This report by Carbon Market Watch, with analysis by Sandbag, examines potential CBAM costs for Japan, South Korea, Vietnam, Indonesia, and the Philippines, based on their trade exposure, production outlooks, and progress toward implementing a domestic carbon price signal.

Estimates suggesting that the EU’s Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) could increase fertiliser prices by up to 30% have brought a central question into focus: how significant is the inflationary impact likely to be?

This research note shows that Namibia and Ghana are likely to benefit from the CBAM, as EU price increases linked to the EU ETS outweigh CBAM fees under current exports. It also sets out transparent transformation scenarios, based on announced industrial projects, to show how expanded and lower-emissions production could further increase export revenues over time.

Sandbag’s latest brief explains why the EU CBAM must be expanded to cover key chemical value chains. With chemicals and refinery products responsible for 30% of industry emissions, phased inclusion is critical to prevent carbon leakage and phase out free allowances.

The Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism CBAM is often misunderstood as a trade policy whereas it is actually a climate policy. Its only objective, as stated in Article 1 of the CBAM Regulation, is to replace the current system of free allocation of emission allowances to EU-based manufacturers under the EU carbon market.

Sandbag’s September 2025 research note explores the impact of the EU’s CBAM on US exports. It finds that even with expanded scope, the financial impact remains marginal, and US carbon pricing could turn net costs negative.

Supported by the Konrad-Adenauer-Stiftung, Sandbag’s report examines the impact of the EU’s Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) and the gradual removal of free allowances on third-country exporters. The joint implementation is expected to raise production costs for both EU and non-EU producers, leading to higher prices for CBAM-covered goods in the EU.