BETA CBAM Simulator
Explore real-world trade impacts of the EU CBAM using Sandbag’s data-based modelThe CBAM Simulator was developed to help stakeholders, especially from non-EU countries, understand the potential implications of the EU’s Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) and explore how different national strategies may influence outcomes.
It is not designed to forecast specific costs, but rather to provide a flexible, interactive environment where users can simulate scenarios, apply filters, and compare the effects of policy choices on trade flows and carbon-related costs.
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Trade volumes were updated with 2025 data, emission intensity estimations are more accurate
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Our “downstream extension” scope was updated to reflect the European Commission proposal on 178 downstream steel and aluminium goods
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We added a scope extension to pre-consumer scrap for steel and aluminium, as per the Commission proposal
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We added a “transformation” scenario, in which countries adjust to the CBAM through new production projects (not resource shuffling)
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We added a time scale, for you to adjust the phase-out year for free-allocation, meaning that the CBAM’s impact isn’t measured only for 2034 but every year between now and then
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We also updated the design
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Related Publications
Whether the carbon price is right: response to the European Commission’s public consultation on carbon price paid in third countries
Sandbag’s response to the European Commission’s public consultation on the carbon price paid in third countries under the CBAM.
Carbon pricing trends in Asia
This report by Carbon Market Watch, with analysis by Sandbag, examines potential CBAM costs for Japan, South Korea, Vietnam, Indonesia, and the Philippines, based on their trade exposure, production outlooks, and progress toward implementing a domestic carbon price signal.
An opt-in solution to CBAM circumvention and complexity
Our position paper on the Commission’s legislative proposal amending the CBAM proposes an opt-in solution to CBAM circumvention and complexity.
The EU CBAM gives a boost to Algeria’s iron exports
Sandbag’s brief assesses how the EU Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) may affect Algeria’s iron and steel exports. It finds that although Algeria’s overall exposure to CBAM is limited, rising EU carbon costs are likely to increase EU market prices, with implications for the revenues and competitiveness of Algerian exports.
CBAM and Fertiliser Inflation in 2026: The facts behind the numbers
Estimates suggesting that the EU’s Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) could increase fertiliser prices by up to 30% have brought a central question into focus: how significant is the inflationary impact likely to be?
The CBAM dividend for Namibia and Ghana
This research note shows that Namibia and Ghana are likely to benefit from the CBAM, as EU price increases linked to the EU ETS outweigh CBAM fees under current exports. It also sets out transparent transformation scenarios, based on announced industrial projects, to show how expanded and lower-emissions production could further increase export revenues over time.
Chemicals in the CBAM: Time to step up
Sandbag’s latest brief explains why the EU CBAM must be expanded to cover key chemical value chains. With chemicals and refinery products responsible for 30% of industry emissions, phased inclusion is critical to prevent carbon leakage and phase out free allowances.
The EU CBAM: a two-way street between the EU and Africa
The Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism CBAM is often misunderstood as a trade policy whereas it is actually a climate policy. Its only objective, as stated in Article 1 of the CBAM Regulation, is to replace the current system of free allocation of emission allowances to EU-based manufacturers under the EU carbon market.
Sandbag’s Response to the CBAM Calls for Evidence
Sandbag has submitted responses to the EU’s CBAM calls for evidence, addressing emissions reporting, adjustment for free allocation, and carbon prices paid abroad. We highlight risks such as loopholes and unequal treatment, and propose practical solutions to strengthen CBAM’s effectiveness and fairness.
CBAM impact on US trade: an analysis
Sandbag’s September 2025 research note explores the impact of the EU’s CBAM on US exports. It finds that even with expanded scope, the financial impact remains marginal, and US carbon pricing could turn net costs negative.
