CBAM Simulator

Explore real-world trade impacts of the EU CBAM using Sandbag’s data-based model.

The CBAM Simulator was developed to help stakeholders, especially from non-EU countries, understand the potential implications of the EU Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) and explore how different national strategies may influence outcomes.

It is not designed to forecast specific costs, but rather to provide a flexible, interactive environment where users can simulate scenarios, apply filters, and compare the effects of policy choices on trade flows and carbon-related costs.

All simulations are based on 2023 trade volumes, assuming these remain constant over time.

The simulator is designed to illustrate possible evolutions of the CBAM and responses to it by third countries.

Read the User Guide

If you have any questions about the assumptions, methodology, or calculations, you can find full explanations in the user guide.

In the news

Carbon Pulse, 16 October 2025: EU CBAM costs overstated by more than half, says think tank
The Hindu (India), 16 October 2025: Indian iron and steel exporters face highest CBAM levy among EU trade partners
Business Today (India), 17 October 2025: EU’s carbon border fees on Indian exports likely to be minor initially: Report
Carbon Market Watch, 17 October 2025: EU’s CBAM will help Asian economies step up their carbon market ambitions, simulation reveals
The Hunt (India), 20 October 2025: Relief for India on carbon border tax; initial financial impact limited, but uncertainty remains
Indian PSU (India), 20 October 2025: EU’s Carbon Border Fees on Indian Exports Likely to Be Minor Initially: Sandbag Study
Kallanish Commodities, 20 October 2025: Indian exporters face $386m EU CBAM cost: Sandbag
World News (US) 20 October 2025: Indian exporters face $386m EU CBAM cost: Sandbag
Steel Orbis, 20 October 2025: Sandbag: EU’s CBAM expected to have minimal impact on Indian exports
Foresight News, 22 October 2025: 10 weeks to go until CBAM truth revealed — The Jolt podcast with Sam Morgan

Related Publications

The CBAM dividend for Namibia and Ghana

by Andrew Fearney | Dec 24, 2025 | Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM)

This research note shows that Namibia and Ghana are likely to benefit from the CBAM, as EU price increases linked to the EU ETS outweigh CBAM fees under current exports. It also sets out transparent transformation scenarios, based on announced industrial projects, to show how expanded and lower-emissions production could further increase export revenues over time.

Chemicals in the CBAM: Time to step up

by Andrew Fearney | Nov 25, 2025 | Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM)

Sandbag’s latest brief explains why the EU CBAM must be expanded to cover key chemical value chains. With chemicals and refinery products responsible for 30% of industry emissions, phased inclusion is critical to prevent carbon leakage and phase out free allowances.

The EU CBAM: a two-way street between the EU and Africa

by Andrew Fearney | Oct 14, 2025 | Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM)

Sandbag’s newly released CBAM Simulator allowed us to explore how the EU’s Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) could impact African exporters — and how cleaner production and carbon pricing could turn a cost into a competitive edge.