Reviewing the 4th carbon budget – Evidence submitted to the Climate Change Committee

In this submission to the Climate Change Committee we highlight that the current “climate objective” adopted by the CCC involves unusually low probabilities of keeping global temperature rise below two degrees (e.g. 37%), and also emphasise that the assumed UK emissions pathway encroaches heavily on the emissions space available to developing countries. We echo the CCC’s earlier published remarks that the UK’s current targets and budgets represent a minimum conceivable contribution to a global effort to combat climate change and argue that these should be strengthened further. Finally, we propose that the UK can best maintain the autonomy and environmental integrity of its domestic carbon budgets by unilaterally cancelling any excess carbon allowances awarded it under EU or international burden sharing agreements.