Sandbag’s brief assesses how the EU Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) may affect Algeria’s iron and steel exports. It finds that although Algeria’s overall exposure to CBAM is limited, rising EU carbon costs are likely to increase EU market prices, with implications for the revenues and competitiveness of Algerian exports.
Estimates suggesting that the EU’s Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) could increase fertiliser prices by up to 30% have brought a central question into focus: how
significant is the inflationary impact likely to be?
This research note shows that Namibia and Ghana are likely to benefit from the CBAM, as EU price increases linked to the EU ETS outweigh CBAM fees under current exports. It also sets out transparent transformation scenarios, based on announced industrial projects, to show how expanded and lower-emissions production could further increase export revenues over time.
As EU policymakers debate how to certify low-carbon steel, Sandbag’s new briefing analyses the “sliding scale” method — and outlines why it may hinder rather than help decarbonisation. A new model is proposed based on product-specific benchmarks, multi-tier ratings, and circularity incentives.
Sandbag’s latest brief explains why the EU CBAM must be expanded to cover key chemical value chains. With chemicals and refinery products responsible for 30% of industry emissions, phased inclusion is critical to prevent carbon leakage and phase out free allowances.